Russian Consequences

August 4, 2014

            As of this date, Ukraine is slowly whittling away at the Donetsk-Luhansk rebel area.  There is some concern that Russia, in the form of proxy ‘volunteers’, will invade and help the rebels preserve what is left to them.  Even worse would be if the revived rebel forces were to expand and retake much of what they have lost in recent weeks.

The following is a scenario of what could happen from the Western European point of view if the Russian intervention should take place.

Through backchannels, the Russians (Putin) should be made aware of the following consequences should Russia intervene in the Ukrainian rebellion.

1. NATO would immediately sign a mutual aid agreement with Ukraine and rush in troops to help establish Ukrainian border security.  The rationale is that any Russian action, no matter how covert, is a threat to NATO as Ukraine borders on four NATO members (Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania).

This would create the worst Russian nightmare: NATO would now have a substantial border area directly abutting Russia, not just the Estonia and Latvia borders as previously held.

2. Kaliningrad would be more isolated than ever.  If NATO is having to confront

Russia’s military aggression, it stands to reason that NATO would cut off land access to Kaliningrad.  Air and naval supplies would not be curtailed.

3. The Transnistria statelet would be isolated and eventually eliminated.   

Transnistria is solely supported by Russia.  But with NATO helping Ukraine, Russian supply flights would be halted.  Any Russian plane flying to Transnistria would have to have Ukrainian (or Romanian) airspace permission.  That permission would only be allowed if the plane were to land in NATO territory and pass inspection.  No military cargo or personnel would be allowed to proceed.

4. Turkey would reach out to Georgia and Azerbaijan and form a mutual aid

group.  This would allow Turkey to have a buffer zone against Russian expansion designs while also establishing Turkish hegemony over the southern Caucasus area.

This would also isolate Armenia which would be especially appealing to Azerbaijan and be galling to Russia as Armenia is one of its allies.

Note:  For these purposes, the United Nations is considered to be ineffectual.  Even if it decided to do something, it would take too long to be of any benefit.